In and Out of War and Peace: Transitional Models of International Conflict
نویسنده
چکیده
Dyad-year data on international conflict are simultaneously qualitative and serially dependent. Extending Beck, Katz, and Tucker’s (1998) methodological contribution, I propose transitional models that deal with these two features of the data. These statistical models explicitly deal with the way a dyad’s particular history of peace or conflict structures current outcomes, consistent with important substantive notions in the IR literature such as reputation-building, signalling, alliance reliability, territoriality, and enduring rivalries. That is, I propose statistical models that (a) are easily estimated; (b) resolve long-standing methodological dilemmas, and (c) speak to important theoretical ideas in the study of international relations. The transitional models I propose generalize beyond the international conflict data analyzed here, to any type of discrete time-series setting. One of the transitional models I propose is a novel methodological contribution in its own right --a dynamic probit model --unifying two hitherto disparate branches of quantitative political methodology (time series and discrete choice).
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